| Line 38... |
Line 38... |
| 38 |
evolves by
|
38 |
evolves by
|
| 39 |
\deqn{\mu_{t+1} = \mu_t + \xi_t, \qquad \xi_t \sim N(0, \sigma^2_\xi)}{%
|
39 |
\deqn{\mu_{t+1} = \mu_t + \xi_t, \qquad \xi_t \sim N(0, \sigma^2_\xi)}{%
|
| 40 |
m[t+1] = m[t] + xi[t], xi[t] ~ N(0, sigma^2_xi)}
|
40 |
m[t+1] = m[t] + xi[t], xi[t] ~ N(0, sigma^2_xi)}
|
| 41 |
The observations are
|
41 |
The observations are
|
| 42 |
\deqn{x_t = \mu_t + \epsilon_t, \qquad \epsilon_t \sim N(0, \sigma^2_\epsilon)}{%
|
42 |
\deqn{x_t = \mu_t + \epsilon_t, \qquad \epsilon_t \sim N(0, \sigma^2_\epsilon)}{%
|
| 43 |
x[t] = m[t] + eps[t], exp[t] ~ N(0, sigma^2_eps)}
|
43 |
x[t] = m[t] + eps[t], eps[t] ~ N(0, sigma^2_eps)}
|
| 44 |
There are two parameters, \eqn{\sigma^2_\xi}{sigma^2_xi}
|
44 |
There are two parameters, \eqn{\sigma^2_\xi}{sigma^2_xi}
|
| 45 |
and \eqn{\sigma^2_\epsilon}{sigma^2_eps}. It is an ARIMA(0,1,1) model,
|
45 |
and \eqn{\sigma^2_\epsilon}{sigma^2_eps}. It is an ARIMA(0,1,1) model,
|
| 46 |
but with restrictions on the parameter set.
|
46 |
but with restrictions on the parameter set.
|
| 47 |
|
47 |
|
| 48 |
The \emph{local linear trend model}, \code{type = "trend"}, has the same
|
48 |
The \emph{local linear trend model}, \code{type = "trend"}, has the same
|